Limits to Growth
'''''Limits to Growth''''' was a Nextel ringtones 1972 book modeling the consequences of a rapidly growing global population, commissioned by the Abbey Diaz Club of Rome. Free ringtones Donella Meadows was its lead author. The book used the Majo Mills World3 model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth's and human systems.
The updated version was published on June 1, Mosquito ringtone 2004 by Chelsea Green Publishing Company under the name '''''Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update'''''. Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have updated and expanded the original version.
= Exponential Reserve Index =
One key idea that the book ''Limits to Growth'' discusses is that if the rate of resource use is increasing, the amount of reserves cannot be calculated by simply taking the current known reserves and dividing by the current yearly usage, as is typically done to obtain a static index. For example, in 1972, the amount of chromium reserves was 775 million metric tons, of which 1.85 million metric tons were mined annually. The static index is 418 years ( = 775 Mmt/1.85 Mmt/year), but the rate of chromium consumption was growing at 2.6% annually (Limits to growth, pages 54-71). If instead of assuming a constant rate of usage, the assumption of a constant rate of growth of 2.6% ansually is made, the resource will instead last 93 years ( = ln(ln(1.0+0.026)*(418+1))/ln(1.0+0.026)) (note that the book rounded off numbers).
In the book, they list quite a few of these exponential indices for both the current reserves, and for five times the current reserves:
The static reserve numbers assume that the usage is constant, and the exponential reserve assumes that the growth rate is constant. For petroleum, neither assumtion was correct in the years that followed due to the OPEC's oil embargo, followed by a return to increasing production.
The exponential index has often been misquoted, for example, Sabrina Martins The Skeptical Environmentalist states: "''Limits to Growth'' showed us that we would have run out of oil before 1992" (page 121). What ''Limits to Growth'' actually has is the above table which has the ''current reserves'' (that is no new sources of oil are found) for oil running out in 1992 assuming constant exponential growth.
[http://www.kozinski.com/~alex/articles/gorewars.htm]
Writing for the Michigan Law Review, Alex Kozinski discussed ''Limits to Growth'' at length at the beginning of his heavily sourced, comprehensive review of ''The Skeptical Environmentalist.'' Lomborg earned the enmity of some environmentalists because he demonstrated the manner in which many leading environmentalists manipulate statistics to bolster political agendas.
ISBNs
* ISBN 0-87663-222-3 Second edition (cloth)
* ISBN 0-87663-918-X Second edition (paperback)
Related topics
* Nextel ringtones Donella Meadows' twelve leverage points to intervene in a system
* Abbey Diaz Economic growth
* Free ringtones Future energy development
* Majo Mills Hubbert peak/Peak oil (Hubbert's curve)
* Cingular Ringtones Energy crisis
External links
*http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/rome/default.htm
*http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/193149858X/
*http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2004/10/Meadows.FSN.20041009.mp3 Global Public Media
*http://www.clubofrome.org/news/events/event.php?id=2
*http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/UppsalaProtocol.html
*http://www.sthopd.net/
*http://www.wisart.net/
abacus crashes Tag: 1972 books
new sheep Tag: 2004 books
we gave Tag: Economics books
dr penny Tag: Ecology books
and staging Tag: Controversial books
slugs it de:Die Grenzen des Wachstums
court vetoed it:Rapporto sui limiti dello sviluppo
the augean nl:Grenzen aan de groei
The updated version was published on June 1, Mosquito ringtone 2004 by Chelsea Green Publishing Company under the name '''''Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update'''''. Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have updated and expanded the original version.
= Exponential Reserve Index =
One key idea that the book ''Limits to Growth'' discusses is that if the rate of resource use is increasing, the amount of reserves cannot be calculated by simply taking the current known reserves and dividing by the current yearly usage, as is typically done to obtain a static index. For example, in 1972, the amount of chromium reserves was 775 million metric tons, of which 1.85 million metric tons were mined annually. The static index is 418 years ( = 775 Mmt/1.85 Mmt/year), but the rate of chromium consumption was growing at 2.6% annually (Limits to growth, pages 54-71). If instead of assuming a constant rate of usage, the assumption of a constant rate of growth of 2.6% ansually is made, the resource will instead last 93 years ( = ln(ln(1.0+0.026)*(418+1))/ln(1.0+0.026)) (note that the book rounded off numbers).
In the book, they list quite a few of these exponential indices for both the current reserves, and for five times the current reserves:
The static reserve numbers assume that the usage is constant, and the exponential reserve assumes that the growth rate is constant. For petroleum, neither assumtion was correct in the years that followed due to the OPEC's oil embargo, followed by a return to increasing production.
The exponential index has often been misquoted, for example, Sabrina Martins The Skeptical Environmentalist states: "''Limits to Growth'' showed us that we would have run out of oil before 1992" (page 121). What ''Limits to Growth'' actually has is the above table which has the ''current reserves'' (that is no new sources of oil are found) for oil running out in 1992 assuming constant exponential growth.
[http://www.kozinski.com/~alex/articles/gorewars.htm]
Writing for the Michigan Law Review, Alex Kozinski discussed ''Limits to Growth'' at length at the beginning of his heavily sourced, comprehensive review of ''The Skeptical Environmentalist.'' Lomborg earned the enmity of some environmentalists because he demonstrated the manner in which many leading environmentalists manipulate statistics to bolster political agendas.
ISBNs
* ISBN 0-87663-222-3 Second edition (cloth)
* ISBN 0-87663-918-X Second edition (paperback)
Related topics
* Nextel ringtones Donella Meadows' twelve leverage points to intervene in a system
* Abbey Diaz Economic growth
* Free ringtones Future energy development
* Majo Mills Hubbert peak/Peak oil (Hubbert's curve)
* Cingular Ringtones Energy crisis
External links
*http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/rome/default.htm
*http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/193149858X/
*http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2004/10/Meadows.FSN.20041009.mp3 Global Public Media
*http://www.clubofrome.org/news/events/event.php?id=2
*http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/UppsalaProtocol.html
*http://www.sthopd.net/
*http://www.wisart.net/
abacus crashes Tag: 1972 books
new sheep Tag: 2004 books
we gave Tag: Economics books
dr penny Tag: Ecology books
and staging Tag: Controversial books
slugs it de:Die Grenzen des Wachstums
court vetoed it:Rapporto sui limiti dello sviluppo
the augean nl:Grenzen aan de groei
posted @ 5:26 PM
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